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Tree risk assessment: how QTRA and VALID work

What a tree risk assessment involves, how QTRA puts a number on the risk of harm, and when you need one for your home, strata or business.

By Marcus Nicholson, AQF Level 5 consulting arborist. Updated October 2026.

Close view of eucalyptus bark

A tree risk assessment answers a simple question: how likely is this tree to cause harm, and is that risk reasonable? Owners, strata committees, schools, businesses and councils use them to make decisions they can defend.

When you might need one

  • A large tree overhangs a house, driveway, play area or public path
  • A tree has a defect such as a crack, cavity, decay or a changing lean
  • An insurer, strata committee or property manager wants an independent opinion
  • Council needs evidence to support a pruning or removal application
  • You manage a site with many trees and want to plan inspections and works

How QTRA works

Quantified Tree Risk Assessment (QTRA) looks at three things: the target (people or property that could be hit), the size of the part that could fail, and the probability of that part failing within the next year. Combining them gives an annual Risk of Harm, expressed as a probability such as 1 in 100,000.

QTRA's advisory thresholds help owners decide what to do:

  • 1 in 1,000 or higher is unacceptable and will not ordinarily be tolerated
  • Between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 10,000 is unacceptable where the risk is imposed on others, though it may be tolerated by agreement
  • Between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 1,000,000 is tolerable if the risk is as low as reasonably practicable, so risk control is weighed against cost and the tree's benefits
  • Below 1 in 1,000,000 is broadly acceptable and needs no action other than review

How VALID works

VALID is a tree risk-benefit method. It assesses the likelihood of failure and the consequences, and it also weighs the benefits a tree provides, such as shade, habitat and amenity. That helps owners avoid removing valuable trees when a smaller intervention would make the risk acceptable.

What you get

After the site inspection you receive a written assessment that identifies each tree, describes its condition and defects, states the risk, and recommends what to do and how soon. Recommendations often favour pruning or monitoring over removal when that brings the risk down enough.

Who carries it out

Marcus Nicholson is an AQF Level 5 consulting arborist, a registered QTRA user (#6912) and a VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Assessor. Ask about a tree risk assessment or read more about our arborist reports.

Quick answers

What is a tree risk assessment?

An inspection and written assessment of how likely a tree is to cause harm, using a recognised method such as QTRA or VALID, with recommendations on what to do and when.

What does QTRA stand for?

Quantified Tree Risk Assessment. It combines the target, the size of the part that could fail and the probability of failure within a year to give an annual Risk of Harm.

What QTRA risk level is acceptable?

Under QTRA's advisory thresholds, a Risk of Harm below 1 in 1,000,000 is broadly acceptable. Risks of 1 in 1,000 or higher will not ordinarily be tolerated.

Who can do a tree risk assessment?

A qualified consulting arborist trained in a recognised method. Marcus Nicholson is AQF Level 5, a registered QTRA user (#6912) and a VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Assessor.

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